My research studies the North Korean economy in comparative and regional perspective — alongside China, Russia, and transition economies — in an area where reliable macroeconomic data are scarce, official statistics are limited, and indirect measurement is essential. Across four interrelated themes, my work combines area-studies depth with empirical economic methods, including administrative big data, panel and cohort designs, index construction, and text-based measurement.
North Korean Economy
Marketization, price formation, the impact of border closures on domestic markets, and the evolution of economic strategy under successive Party Congresses.
Foreign Economic Relations: China & Russia
North Korea’s external economic ties, including trade with China, the economic implications of strengthened North Korea–Russia relations amid the Russia–Ukraine war, and the structural reconfiguration of the regional economy linking Russia’s Far East, Northeast China, and the northern Korean Peninsula under deepening North Korea–China–Russia cooperation.
Unification & Economic Integration
Inter-Korean geopolitical risk and its transmission to corporate investment, stock returns, and financial markets; the political economy of public attitudes toward unification; and historical perspectives on Korean economic integration.
North Korean Refugees
Labor-market assimilation, health trajectories and chronic disease, early-life nutritional shocks, and subjective well-being among North Korean defectors resettled in South Korea.
Studies how geopolitical risk from North Korea affects South Korean firms’ investment and stock returns. Constructs a novel monthly GPRNK index from news articles that spikes during nuclear tests or military confrontations and falls during summits. Heightened GPRNK reduces corporate investment and stock returns, with larger effects for capital-intensive and geopolitically exposed firms; firms with higher labor flexibility are less affected. Local-projection estimates indicate persistent investment declines.
The Long-Term Effects of the 1990s North Korean Famine on Health and Labor Market Outcomes
with Jongmin Lee (Korea National Defense University)
Studies how early-life exposure to the 1990s North Korean famine affected the later-life health and labor-market outcomes of North Korean defectors. Using South Korea’s National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) data, the project compares famine-exposed cohorts with other defector cohorts and matched South Korean residents, with adult height as a proxy for early-life nutrition, and estimates effects on disease prevalence, employment, occupational status, and income.
Regional Economic Reconfiguration in Russia’s Far East and the Northern Korean Peninsula: Structural Implications of Deepening North Korea–China–Russia Cooperation
with Hyuntai Lee (Seoul National University)
Examines how deepening cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia is reshaping the regional economy of Russia’s Far East and the northern Korean Peninsula. Since the Russia–Ukraine war, Russia has turned more decisively toward East Asia while North Korea has strengthened its strategic and economic ties with Russia, with China remaining central to regional trade, logistics, and industrial networks. The project analyzes whether these developments are producing a new regional economic structure linking Russia’s Far East, Northeast China, and North Korea, focusing on logistics routes, industrial linkages, energy cooperation, labor mobility, and the strategic role of North Korea, and assesses the structural implications of trilateral cooperation for the future of the northern Korean Peninsula and South Korea’s northern economic strategy.
Health Assimilation among North Korean Defectors in South Korea
with Jongmin Lee (Korea National Defense University)
Analyzes how the health status of North Korean defectors changes after resettlement in South Korea, using NHIS administrative data from 2002 to 2024. Compares defectors with matched South Korean residents on chronic diseases, mental health, biomarkers, and health behaviors, and examines whether health gaps narrow or widen over time and across local socioeconomic conditions.
The Causes of Anti-Unification Sentiment in South Korea
with Yungsin Cho (Bank of Korea) and Kyoochul Kim (Ewha Womans University)
Examines why negative attitudes toward Korean unification have increased in South Korea, especially among younger generations. Using survey data on more than 15,000 respondents from 2007 to 2019, the paper analyzes how ethnic identity, age, occupation, and economic concerns shape attitudes toward unification, and finds that economic factors have increasingly displaced traditional ethnic justifications.